How accurate are Predictions

In markets, everyone loves to predict. Technical Analysis has quite a few tools / methods whose whole concept is the ability to forecast given certain circumstances. In a way, ability to predict is like the ability to act like God and is very very addictive. Its one thing to have a opinion of the future and quite another to predict that markets shall do this or that by this or that particular date.

In a google group called LongTermInvestors, there is this guy by name Ravi Palwankar who has gained a following based on his ability to give a date on which he expects the markets to move. The only caveat is that he does not provide the direction and hence it can either be bullish or bearish in nature.

His messages are like the one below (his most recent one)

Ravi

I came across this guy only due to following Vish on Twitter who not only provides updates as and when a new mail is posted but also has kept records of his previous predictions. Thanks to him, I could make an attempt at testing the profitability of his calls.

Since the move can be either Bullish or Bearish and also can be + or – 1 day from the day he has given, I have in the test bought a Straddle (closest strike) 2 days before the event and sold 2 days after the event. In the case, the D-2 day falls on a holiday, I have taken the previous day closing price as entry and in case the D+2 day falls on a holiday, closing price of the next trading day is taken for the calculation.

Results are as here under

Ravi-2

The sample size is pretty small and hence do take the results with a pound of Salt. But for what they are worth, it seems that shoring a straddle before the event has a better outcome than buying one.

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About Prashanth

Have been a full time participant in the stock markets since 1996. Run a Yahoo Group where focus is exclusively on discussions of the Indian Markets using Technical Analysis as the tool (groups.yahoo.com/group/technical-investor)
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6 Responses to How accurate are Predictions

  1. Shan says:

    Lol. For all we know the guy is reading astrological charts to predict hehhe.
    In seriousness I think the whole experts thing is a big myth. Read Talebs work, e.g. The Black Swan … There are many others like Bogle also who shun experts

  2. Varun says:

    The dates the guy is giving out are called as ‘Gann turn dates’. WD gann was the one who came out with the dates based on astronomy, astrology and ancient maths.

  3. Ravi says:

    Being a Computer engineer for last 27yrs, I have developed this unique system, of predicting “Boom Boom calls”. This is different from all the existing methods. It is observed that this system has a strike rate of more than 90-95%.And if you follow the technical charts you may even achieve 100% results.
    I have kept the log of all the calls for your perusal.Your feedback is welcome

    • Sunil says:

      Its funny anybody can predict such things… just choose a random date and give.. then as +1/-1 so out of three days we are surly going to get 80-100 points move atleast 33% probability is there… this is just fooling.. like using a parrot for stock market.

      Just try to put any random dates as a experiments.. and see the results.. you will get good success…

      Any small kid can do it

  4. saurab says:

    Its useless even since its not one date, its plus and minus one day so technically its three days.
    it can be plus or minus so not even the direction is shared in any of the post.

    market has to move one side can be up or down so what about that?

    Then the claim is of the total nifty point i mean who can even buy the bottom or sell the top
    The guy do not even have his own trading record to show of his own dates when asked

    End of story ! not worth the time or money to learn – For entertainment surely do πŸ™‚

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